WEN JIABAO: A REFORMER AT HEART?
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Published in China Brief, a Jamestown Foundation Publication
There seems little question that, given the constraints of Chinese politics,
Vice Premier Wen Jiabao is a reasonably suitable candidate to succeed Zhu Rongji
as premier next March. The big question is whether Wen has what it takes to
defuse China's mounting contradictions and to pick up the threads of reform.
It is instructive to examine the 59-year-old geologist's strong suits. First, it
is not for nothing that he is called a "latter-day Zhou Enlai," a reference to
the late premier who is still revered for holding China together during the
Cultural Revolution. Apart perhaps from party elder and former Politburo
Standing Committee member Song Ping, Wen was hardly the beneficiary of top-level
patronage when he was transferred from the Ministry of Geology to the Chinese
Communist Party's General Office (CCPGO) in late 1985.
As China scholar Wu Jiaxiang, a former CCPGO official now doing research at
Harvard University, pointed out, Wen became a vice director of the General
Office after successfully going through a series assessments and recommendations
given by Organization Department officials and senior ministers. "Wen has superb
administrative skills," said Wu. "Particularly given his science background, his
ability to handle and refine official documents is quite amazing."
THE ZHAO ZIYANG UNDERLING
The Tianjin native also knows how to avoid being entangled in the party's
factional intrigues. Since the mid-1980s, Wen has served top leaders including
the late party chief Hu Yaobang, ousted party chief Zhao Ziyang, President Jiang
Zemin and Premier Zhu Rongji. His apparent closeness to Zhao--which was attested
to by the now-famous photograph of Wen accompanying the ill-fated party boss to
see the hunger-striking students at Tiananmen Square in May 1989--almost cost
him his career.
But after the June 4 massacre, Wen managed to win the trust of Zhao's successor,
Jiang--as well as of party elders, including Deng Xiaoping and Yang Shangkun.
Yang reportedly vouched for Wen's loyalty when then Premier Li Peng wanted to
sack the "Zhao Ziyang underling."
Since moving to the State Council as vice premier in 1998, Wen has proven
himself indispensable to his new boss, Premier Zhu Rongji. Among the four vice
premiers, Wen has held the most important portfolios. They include agriculture,
finance and major projects, such as the develop-the-west program and the
drafting of the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-2005). Wen, along with Vice President
Hu Jintao (who is expected to succeed Jiang as party chief and state president
within the year) and Head of the Organization Department Zeng Qinghong (Jiang's
top protege), is also responsible for overall preparations for the 16th CCP
Congress.
"The Zhou Enlai nickname came about because of Wen's ability to navigate the
vast government bureaucracy--and to oblige different and even rival departments
to work together," said a party source. "During cabinet meetings, [Premier] Zhu
often asks Wen to speak toward the end, that is, to sum up the suggestions of
cabinet members. Wen is much less garrulous than fellow cadres such as [Vice
Premier] Wu Banguo. But few can match Wen's ability to convert complicated
issues into straightforward policy recommendations."
The source added that Wen spoke in a slow, measured rhythm and that he was calm
and methodical, an interesting foil to the impatient and headstrong Zhu. Beijing
analysts, furthermore, have credited a number of important initiatives to Wen.
In 1999, the vice premier suggested limiting the taxes that a farmer had to pay
to five percent of his income. In 2000, he and Zhu announced that it would be
illegal for grassroots administrations to slap extra levies and charges on
peasants. Wen has been instrumental in expanding the stock markets--and ensuring
that better-quality state-owned enterprises can go through quasi-privatization
through listings on the bourses.
A POSITIVE IMAGE, BUT...
Perhaps because of the frequency with which Wen appears on television on
missions such as handling flood control and visiting poor peasants, he has a
generally positive image among cadres and ordinary citizens. In a poll that an
unofficial website conducted earlier this year on the popularity of Politburo
members, Wen had the highest score.
According to domestic and foreign reporters covering the just-ended National
People's Congress (NPC), Wen was received enthusiastically by deputies when he
joined provincial NPC members for small-group discussions. By contrast, the
stars of his two rivals for the premiership, Vice Premier Wu Bangguo and
Guangdong Party Secretary Li Changchun, seem to be dimming.
However, despite Wen's reputation as a "can do" vice premier and his overall
acceptability to all factions, he has also come in for criticism. Given that his
major portfolio is agriculture, the sorry state of the countryside--the
near-stagnant income of farmers and growing numbers of rural riots and
demonstrations--cannot but hurt his prestige. After all, Premier Zhu, his
patron, admitted at the NPC that his cabinet's main failure was in the area of
ameliorating the livelihood of 600 million farmers.
Wen's defenders, however, have pointed out that there is little the vice premier
can do given the central leadership's pro-industry and pro-coast bias since Deng
Xiaoping assumed power in 1978. There are strong expectations that together with
Hu, Wen might to some extent shift the focus of development away from the coast
and back to the central and western provinces. While most senior cadres on the
political stage have earned their spurs along the rich coast, both Wen and Hu
spent a good chunk of their careers in the hinterland. Wen was a geologist in
hardscrabble Gansu for fourteen years; and Hu had stints in Gansu, Guizhou and
Tibet.
Analysts say if only to boost their popularity among cadres from agrarian,
hinterland provinces, it is quite possible Wen and Hu--who lack national stature
and legitimacy--may position themselves as champions for the resuscitation of
rural, heartland regions. It is instructive that the municipal leadership of
Shanghai, which has received the bulk of central attention and funds for the
past decade, has felt so nervous about the rise of a so-called "Hu-Wen axis"
that it is trying hard to have major infrastructure projects approved when Jiang
is still around.
Perhaps more important, however, is whether Wen is liberal enough to push
through economic, and particularly, political reform. A senior Western diplomat
said while Wen had studiously steered clear of controversial ideological issues
such as political liberalization, his reformist credentials were impressive.
When addressing a recent investors' forum, Wen said that China must
"enthusiastically" take part in globalization. "We must grasp the trends of
global international development, take firm hold of the opportunities and boldly
accept challenges," Wen said. And while touring Anhui Province last year, Wen
told local cadres to "continue to make bold explorations, create new experience
and steadfastly push reform forward."
Some analysts already see the possibility of Wen and Hu forming a strategic
alliance in the post-16th Congress order. The analysts say it is possible that
if relatively liberal Politburo member Li Ruihuan becomes chairman of the NPC
next year, a Hu-Wen-Li bloc may be formed in the new Politburo Standing
Committee as a counterweight to the remnants of the Jiang faction, who will
likely be represented by Zeng and Wu Bangguo.
According to seasoned observers such as China scholar Wu Jiaxiang, the nervous
political climate that is expected to reign in Beijing for the foreseeable
future would make it difficult for Wen to show his true colors during his first
term as premier (2003-2008). "Wen is believed to be a reformer at heart," said
Wu, adding that much depends on the outcome of factional struggle now being
played out in Beijing. At this stage, obviously, it is in Wen's interest to play
down his reformist proclivities when still-powerful conservative elders such as
NPC chief Li Peng are scheming to deny him the prize of head of the State
Council.
Willy Wo-Lap Lam, one of Asia's best known journalists and authors, is a
senior China analyst at CNN's Asia-Pacific Office in Hong Kong.
Other Articles
Wen Jiabao - Interview